5 picks our expert loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on X at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge, which gets underway Thursday in Texas.

Two long-time friends and legendary golfers from the state of Texas have us transitioning from Byron Nelson’s annual event to “Hogan’s Alley” at Colonial Country Club, home to five career victories by Ben Hogan and what will be the 80th edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge this week on the PGA Tour — the longest running tournament on the Tour at the same golf course.

Colonial Country Club was designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell and received a Gil Hanse/Jim Wagner renovation immediately following the 2023 playing of this tournament. This historic golf course now measures nearly 7,300 yards and plays to a par 70. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined, bordered by somewhat penal Bermudagrass rough. The greens are small targets and are fast, Bentgrass surfaces. The test requires accurate placement off the tee, hitting greens in regulation, and a hot putter.

I looked at Driving Accuracy this week, Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation, and Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass). With 12 of the holes being par 4s, I looked at those that measure between 350-450 yards and I considered Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards.

Colonial is one of the classic, positional, accuracy-based golf courses that doesn’t necessarily cater to the bombers and rewards a player who can dial in the wedge play, hole putts, and avoid bogeys. We definitely see some similar tests on Tour and crossover success on those leaderboards as well.

I always like to start with Waialae Country Club, home to the Sony Open. Chris Kirk and Kevin Na immediately come to mind as two players that have dominated at both Waialae and Colonial. Na, David Toms, and Zach Johnson have won at both tracks. Matt Kuchar, Kirk, Jason Kokrak, and Daniel Berger are examples of players who have had tremendous success at each course. Sea Island (RSM Classic), Innisbrook (Valspar Championship), TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship), and Pebble Beach are the other courses I used that show a great deal of correlation.

I believe it is also worth noting as we near ever closer to this year’s U.S. Open championship that many winners here at Colonial are also U.S. Open champs. It begins with Ben Hogan who won multiple times at each. More recently, Tom Watson, Corey Pavin, Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose are examples of players who have won both championships. Keep an eye on the leaderboard this week as it can possibly provide clues as to who might be ready to pop in a few weeks at Shinnecock Hills. I can tell you that I have already made a bet on one very big long shot to win next month’s U.S. Open, who has PGA Tour wins at Pebble Beach, TPC Southwind, and Colonial. We will have our Early Bets article for the U.S. Open up right here next week.

We went the way of the long shot last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and were able to get two top 20 finishers in Stephan Jaeger and Taylor Moore. With this week’s field also lacking an abundance of big-time stars, I am going to utilize the long shot approach once again.

Ryan Gerard (70-1)

Gerard is one of the premier ball strikers on Tour and that includes being very accurate off the tee. He’s fallen off the boil a bit since beginning the season with two straight runner-up finishes but the first of those two second place finishes was at Waialae for the Sony Open. He’s made the cut now in six straight starts, is a very good putter, and is exceptional in Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards.

Mac Meissner (70-1)

I nearly made Meissner a play last week at TPC Craig Ranch and he did indeed have a strong week, finishing 31st and firing three of four rounds in the 60s. He attended nearby SMU, so I have to believe he is familiar with this golf course and certainly golf in the state of Texas. He finished fifth here at Colonial in 2024. Meissner is an excellent putter, great on approach, ranks 25th on Tour in Scrambling, and is 37th for Greens in Regulation. He ranks 13th on Tour in Bogey Avoidance.

J.T. Poston (70-1)

Similar to last week, I want to lean on good putters again here in Fort Worth. Poston’s short game numbers are surprisingly off this season for a player who has always used such skill sets as his strength. He has top 10 and top 20 finishes at every one of the correlated courses this week, including recent 10th- and 12th-place finishes here at Colonial. Poston also lives in St. Simon’s Island, Georgia and trains at Sea Island Golf Club, where they play the RSM Classic. Despite his short game numbers being off this year, I can’t ignore that he has always been an excellent profile for this type of golf course.

Eric Cole (90-1)

Cole is yet another player who checks the box of tremendous short game who excels in approach play. He ranks 47th on Tour for SG: Approach, 16th for SG: Putting, and is 34th in Scrambling. Like Meissner, Cole also finished 31st last week and posted three of four rounds in the 60s. Prior to that he had two straight sixth-place finishes and a 14th. Cole has finished fifth and 13th at the Sony Open, as high as third at Sea Island, 12th at the Valspar, and has been 22nd, 14th, and 15th at Pebble Beach.

Taylor Moore (115-1)

If you were playing our selection of Moore last week for First Round Leader, you cashed a nice winner as he fired a 62 at TPC Craig Ranch last Thursday. He ended up finishing 14th for the tournament and ranked 10th in that field for SG: Putting. He is now trending in the right direction with finishes in his last three starts of 20-17-and-14. He won the Valspar in 2023, the same year he finished fifth at TPC Southwind. Moore has also been as high as eighth at the RSM Classic.

Lee Hodges (150-1)

The results at the correlated courses for Hodges are the strongest of all of our selections this week. He’s never missed a cut here at Colonial with a finish as high as 12th on his resume. He’s been sixth and 10th at the Sony, fourth and fifth at Sea Island, 18th at the Valspar, and 13th at the FedEx St. Jude. He is the only one of our choices this week who does not have the history or the numbers of a great putter — but he ranks 57th on Tour for SG: Approach, 16th in Driving Accuracy, and is especially good in Hole Proximity from 125-200 yards.