SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — Do you, dear reader, have any idea how difficult this golf course is? In the last four U.S Opens here at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club — from 1986 to 2018 — exactly three players have finished under par. Phil Mickelson played hockey on the 13th green in 2018. Lee Trevino once called the 156-yard par-3 11th — with its tiny green that was already driving players nuts on Monday — “the shortest par 5 in golf.”

Although the only thing harder than the golf course — besides battling traffic to actually get to it — might be trying to predict who wins the 126th U.S. Open. But we are going to try anyway. Welcome to our biased, slightly erratic but mostly logical U.S. Open tiers, where we’ll dig through the contenders and, ultimately, pick a winner. And away we go…

The obligatory mention of the two favorites

Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy

Do you know when Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler last finished outside the top 20? The Players Championship, back in March. In the time since, Rory won the Masters and Scottie has four top-three finishes. Scheffler needs a U.S. Open win to complete the career Grand Slam. Rory is looking for his second U.S. Open trophy. Shinnecock sets up well for both players, who are excellent ball strikers and rarely play themselves out of majors. They are the top two players in the world for a reason. Also, Scheffler’s 30th birthday? It’s Sunday.

One guy we really like who shot 63 last time he played here

Tommy Fleetwood

Before Tommy Fleetwood really became Tommy Fleetwood, he closed the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinny with a brilliant final-round 63, which ended up being a shot shy of winner Brooks Koepka. He finally got his first win on the PGA Tour last year and has six top 10s this season. A superb iron player who knows how to play in the wind, this is the perfect setup for him. Is this major No. 1?

Some other favorites we really like

Matt Fitzpatrick
Wyndham Clark
Cameron Young

This group has been cookin’, people. Fitzpatrick and Young are the front-runners for Player of the Year (five combined wins, including Fitzpatrick’s win with his brother at the Zurich, which we aren’t sure should really count but whatever). Young has tuned into a legit threat every week — he also dominated 60 miles away at Bethpage Black during the Ryder Cup last fall — and Fitzpatrick has already won a U.S. Open and loves these types of tests while everyone else seems to get more nervous around them. Clark, another U.S. Open winner, sparred with a locker this time last year and had been searching for better results since, but he’s turned things around and might be the hottest player entering the week. After his win at the Byron Nelson last month, he finished third at the Memorial and was in contention at the RBC Canadian Open last week before ultimately finishing 11th.

One sneaky pick I specifically like

Tyrrell Hatton

He tied for sixth here eight years ago. He’s wayyyy better now. He tied for 4th at Oakmont last year. U.S. Opens — especially ones at Shinnecock Hills — drive players mad (see: Mickelson, Phil). But Hatton’s already mad.

Shinnecock Hills greens

Nos. 1-18

By rule, someone will win this golf tournament, but the big winner until then (or even after) could be Shinnecock Hills and its devilish greens that are running slightly slower than usual due to anticipated strong winds but are actually still very hard. Fitzpatrick, who likes these kinds of setups, said he was disappointed they watered greens Monday. Regardless of who wins, the course, and greens, will always be a story here.

LIV guys we are bullish on

Jon Rahm

A 2021 U.S. Open winner at Torrey Pines, Rahm has played well this year and you could even argue he’s out to prove he should not be forgotten about despite his league’s ongoing concerns.

LIV guys we are less bullish on

Bryson DeChambeau
Cameron Smith

Bryson has missed the cut in both major starts this year and we aren’t sure Shinnecock is the perfect fit for his brawny game. (The fairways are wide, but if you miss them, it’s dead.) Smith played well at the PGA, but was that too little of a sample size?

Defending champs with injury issues

Brooks Koepka

Koepka won his second straight U.S. Open the last time this tournament was played here and he’ll tell you he’s mentally (and probably physically) stronger than most of these nerds. [Cue Brooks stuffing the 20 amateurs in the field in Shinnecock lockers.] But Brooks withdrew before the final round of the RBC Canadian Open two days ago with a hand injury and on Tuesday said it’s getting better by the day. Still, will it bother him? “I don’t know what I did,” he said Tuesday. “It just felt like it was very weak and kind of a tingly feeling as if you kind of hit your funny bone. That’s kind of how it felt in my ring finger and pinky finger.”

Other U.S. Open winners we didn’t mention yet but think they have a shot to win

J.J. Spaun
Justin Rose
Gary Woodland

J.J. Spaun is this week’s defending champ and has already won this season — and, ahem, excuse the shameless plug, also has the most interesting coach in the game — and Justin Rose continues to play excellent golf well into his 40s. Woodland has been solid and his win earlier this season has been one of the better stories of the year.

Guys playing in their 100th consecutive major

Adam Scott

One-hundred straight. Cheers to Adam. That’s remarkably impressive. Here’s a breakdown of his insane major longevity: 74 cuts made, 45 top 25s, 20 top 10s and, of course, that 2013 Masters win.

3 guys we didn’t mention who finished in the top 10 here in 2018

Dustin Johnson
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger

While we don’t think DJ is about to turn back the clock and find that form, we do like P Reed this week. You should too.

2 guys trending?

Bud Cauley
Viktor Hovland

Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open Sunday, just his first as a pro, and Hovland finished third — his best finish of the season by far. But is it a sign of good things to come or an outlier?

The Jordan Spieth tier

Jordan Spieth

My first major I ever covered was won by Jordan Spieth, back at Chambers Bay in 2016. I don’t think he will win this week but boy time flies.

Other guys who are intriguing and have already won majors

Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Justin Thomas

Would it surprise you if any of these guys won? No, it would not. Xander has played nine U.S. Opens and never finished worse than 14th.

Other guys who are intriguing and have not yet won majors

Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Patrick Cantlay
Russell Henley
Ludvig Aberg
Chris Gotterup

Aberg might be the most intriguing name among the intriguing names without majors. Henley won a couple of weeks ago, is ranked 5th in the world and can walk into basically any restaurant outside of his hometown and not be recognized as Russell Henley, which probably makes Rory and Jordan and Tiger extremely jealous.

Guys we should probably mention but they didn’t fit into other categories

Shane Lowry
Rickie Fowler
Brian Harman
Robert MacIntyre
Hideki Matsuyama
Aaron Rai
Sam Burns

A flier on Lowry, anyone?

Guys we like who are playing in their first U.S. Opens

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Bad news, rookies — the last player to win a U.S. Open in their first attempt was Francis Ouimet… in 1913. Not gonna happen.

Interesting Alexes

Alex Smalley
Alex Fitzpatrick

Both have played well this year and one (Smalley) had a taste of major contention already this season (and finished T3 at the Charles Schwab two weeks after his PGA close-call). The other Alex has continued to prove he belongs on the Big Tour after becoming a full-time member a couple of months ago.

The oldest and the youngest players

Padraig Harrington
Miles Russell

I don’t necessarily think either of these guys will win but it’s always fun to point out the oldest (Padraig Harrington, 54) and youngest (Miles Russell, 17) players in the field. The oldest Open winner was Hale Irwin at 45 and the youngest John McDermott at 19.

The Jacksons

Jackson Koivun
Jackson Suber
Jackson Van Paris
Jackson Herrington
Jackson Ormond

The Jackson 5 is a mix of professionals and amateurs, although it’s mostly notably because 3 percent of the 156-player field is named Jackson. One, however, is worth highlighting for now, and that’s Koivun, who turned pro Monday to put a bow on a sensational three years at Auburn. In his nine PGA Tour starts as an amateur, he made seven cuts and finished in the top 10 three times. There’s a lot of intrigue surrounding him and we’re about to see him lots more on our TVs. A fine Jackson indeed.

And the winner is……

The last time we had a European win the U.S. Open, Matt Fitzpatrick lifted the trophy at Brookline in 2022. Now he does it again, finishing one-over par and edging guys like Scheffler and Fleetwood to claim his second major title. Scheffler was my pick up until Sunday, but after Fitzpatrick finished second in Canada, it was enough to persuade me to go with the hot hand who loves these gritty conditions. Will it actually happen? Now, we wait.

As Ludvig Aberg walked up TPC Sawgrass’ 18th fairway on Saturday evening, he scanned a leaderboard and turned to his caddie, Joe Skovron. Up ahead, a final-hole double bogey from Cameron Young had shuffled things around; suddenly there was a new name in second place.

“Looks like we’re playing with Michael tomorrow, which will be fun,” Aberg told Skovron.

That “Michael” is Michael Thorbjornsen, who begins Sunday’s final round at the Players Championship at 10 under par. That’ll put him three strokes off the pace of his playing partner Ludvig Aberg. They’ll go off at 1:40 p.m. local time, the final twosome of the championship. You don’t have to work too hard to find connections between the two. At 26 (Aberg) and 24 (Thorbjornsen), they’re among the Tour’s youngest, brightest stars. They’re also among the tallest, most athletic, hardest-hitting — and most low-key. They both wear Adidas, too. But it’s a particularly interesting pair for two reasons — their past and their present.

Let’s start at the beginning: these two go way back.

“We’ve gone way back to junior golf. We’ve played a lot of college golf together,” Thorbjornsen said after his third round. “I love playing golf with him. He was one of the guys in college that I looked up to, even though he’s only one year older than me.”

In 2023, Aberg, who went to Texas Tech, was the first-ever winner of the PGA Tour University. In 2024, Thorbjornsen, who went to Stanford, became the second.

“At some point when we were both in college it felt like we played every single tournament together,” Aberg said.

Now they’ll add a post-college tournament chapter. But they’ve already played plenty post-college, because they’re practically neighbors. Both Aberg and Thorbjornsen live in this part of north Florida and play TPC Sawgrass with regularity, sometimes together — either at this week’s Stadium Course or the adjacent Dye’s Valley.

“I’m not sure how many people know that I live here,” Thorbjornsen said, pushing back against the idea that he, a native New Englander, would have a local following. “I still play out of Wellesley, Massachusetts, when they announce my name, but I live 15, 20 minutes north from here.”

Aberg, who’s from Sweden, was slightly more bought in to the local-guy narrative.

“In the U.S., this is where I live. This is where I spend all my time when I’m here, when I’m home. So yeah, I spend a lot of time out at TPC practicing, just on a normal Tuesday when I’m home.” Mostly, winning on Sunday would be a big deal because it’s the Players Championship. But it would mean a little something extra because it’s home.”

Both players rave about the event; based on how they’ve played this week, the feeling is mutual.

“Even before I moved here, when I played the event I absolutely loved it,” Aberg said.

“It’s also cool just to play holes 16, 17, 18 — just look at these iconic holes,” Thorbjornsen said. “The whole course is unbelievable.”

There’s subtext to their choice of residence, which represents a shift in the evolving geography of professional golf. An entire generation of pros had been pulled in the direction of Jupiter, Fla., following in the footsteps of Tiger Woods. Other secondary sites have emerged — Scottsdale, Ariz.; Sea Island, Ga.; Dallas, Tx.; among others — but Jupiter is at the center. It’s interesting, then, that two top young pros have settled some five hours up the coast. It’s not random. This is where the PGA Tour is based and it’s home to TPC Sawgrass, whose facilities are fantastic and have only gotten better. They’re also hardly the first; pros from Vijay Singh to Jim Furyk to Fred Funk to Cameron Smith have called this area home. But it is notable that in recent years more and more young pros have gravitated to the area, these two chief among them.

“This course right here,” Thorbjornsen said, explaining his why. “PGA Tour headquarters just off site too, definitely helps out. I know a lot of younger guys coming out of college are kind of moving into the area. So, yeah, it’s a pretty good spot.”

As for Aberg?

“I just liked it. The first time I was here I played a Junior Players in 2018, 2017, and I remember saying then that this is a really nice place, and I knew the golf was really good,” he said. “I enjoy the little bit of seasonal change, not necessarily 85 degrees all year round as it is in South Florida. Then I naturally knew a lot of people here even before I moved. Yeah, at the end of the day, it was a pretty easy decision.”

No matter the stakes of practice rounds or money matches, there’s no way they will have been able to replicate Sunday final-round pressure in front of a sellout crowd. But they’ll at least know their way around the locker room — and around their playing partner.

Aberg has had greater professional success thus far. He’s contended in majors and won Ryder Cups. Thorbjornsen, on the other hand, is hunting his first Tour victory. This would be a good place to start. And the player beside him will know he’s not to be taken lightly.

“He’s a great guy, good player, and he’ll be coming out excited tomorrow to play,” Aberg said. “He’ll be coming out hot and I’m going to have to respond and play some good golf.”